this was sent to our members early yesterday with some early bets for Week 3.
After an excellent 5-1 in Week 2 we’re back with some early Totals bets for Week 3.
All for the standard 2.5 units:
Pittsburgh at Chicago Under 45.5 @ 1.91 Betfred, 1.88 Unibet, 1.87 Ladbrokes
New Orleans at Carolina Under 48.5 @ 1.91 Coral, Ladbrokes, 1.87 Unibet
Atlanta at Detroit Over 48.5 @ 1.96 @ Marathon, 1.91 SkyBet, PaddyPower
And our preview for Thursday Night Football where we have no best bet on the game:
Los Angeles -2 SAN FRANCISCO 40
The Rams fell behind 13-0 to Washington before storming back to tie the game at 20-20 only to allow Washington to go on a five minute plus drive to pull ahead late in the game 27-20. LA out gained Washington 6.8yppl to 5.7yppl, including out passing the Redskins 8.6yps to 5.4yps. They did allow Washington to rush for 229 yards at 5.9ypr while rushing for 92 yards at 4.4ypr themselves. Because Washington was able to rush the ball so effectively, they also controlled the clock for about 13 more minutes than LA.
SF put up a great fight at Seattle before finally succumbing to the Seahawks 12-9. SF out gained Seattle 5.2yppl to 3.9yppl, including a couple of big runs that helped them averaged 8.4ypr (159 yards rushing) to 3.5ypr for Seattle. While they held Seattle to only 4.3yps once again SF couldn’t throw the ball either as they averaged just 3.1yps. They also only held the ball for about 23 minutes to Seattle’s 36 minutes.
My numbers favor the Rams by two points and project about 40 points in this game. The 49ers qualify in a negative early season situation, which is 75-27-7 and plays against SF here. SF does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 236-149-25. While that situation hasn’t worked as well the last few years it has been good as a home dog in week three of the season so it deserves a little respect for this game.
SF is 11-4 to the under at home as a home dog since the beginning of the 2015 season. They are also just 2-5 ats as a home underdog since the beginning of the 2016 season. The Rams haven’t been a road favorite many times but they have gone under in 10 of their last 11 tries as a road favorite, including going under their last eight tries, which dates back quite a few years. But, even more recently they have gone under their last five attempts as a road favorite going back to 2014 (twice last year). This series in SF has gone under in four straight games. The Rams haven’t scored more than 16 points in a game here in the last four years. SF has been awful on offense this year and they have no big play capabilities so far but their defense has also held teams in check in terms of not allowing big plays. The Rams all of a sudden have found big plays in their offense that were non-existent the last few years but their defense has also given them up this year as well. The situation playing against the 49ers is a pretty strong situation so I will lean that way despite the 49ers success recently against the Rams (three straight wins). LA RAMS 19 SAN FRANCISCO 16
As always, get in touch if you have any questions.
Scott Kellen is our NFL analyst and he’s made a profit in 9 of the last 11 seasons.
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