YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play
KANSAS CITY -3 Oakland 46
Oakland did it again last week coming from down 24-9 to score the last 29 points in the game and win 38-24. The Raiders gave up 212 yards rushing at 7.1ypr and rushed for 139 yards at 4.3ypr. The big difference in the game, however, was through the air. Oakland threw for 7.4yps and held Buffalo to just 4.4yps. Oakland out gained Buffalo 6.0yppl to 5.5yppl, sacked Buffalo four times and held a very good Bills pressure team to zero sacks. Oakland was also plus two in turnover margin.
Kansas City, meanwhile, was at it again with a spectacular win. Down by one the Chiefs intercepted a two point conversion by Atlanta and returned it for a two point score late in the game to defeat Atlanta 29-28. KC out rushed Atlanta 5.6ypr to 4.3ypr. They also put passed Atlanta 10.2yps to 8.1yps. Overall, KC out gained the Falcons 8.1yppl to 6.3yppl. The Chiefs did get a 55 yard rushing touchdown on a fake punt so without that gain, they really averaged just 3.2ypr and 7.1yppl. Atlanta scored on six of nine drives while KC scored on three of seven drives, not counting their final drive where they were trying to run out the clock.
Oakland averages 4.3ypr against teams allowing just 4.1ypr. They are averaging 7.0yps against teams allowing 6.4yps and gain 5.9yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. On defense the Raiders are well below average, giving up 4.9ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr, 7.1yps against teams gaining 6.4yps and allow 6.2yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl. The defense, from the line of scrimmage is well below average, but because of their plus 12 turnover margin they only allow 25 points per game against teams averaging 24 points per game so they are not allowing those below average line of scrimmage numbers to turn into points.
KC is below average on offense, gaining just 6.2yps against teams allowing 6.5yps and 5.4yppl against teams allowing 5.6yppl. The defense is also below average, giving up 4.3ypr against teams averaging just 4.1ypr, 6.7yps against teams averaging 6.6yps and 5.7yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl. But, because of their plus 14 turnover margin, they allow just 20 points per game against teams who average 24 points per game.
For KC, they are healthy and get the return of WR Jeremy Maclin this week.
My numbers favor KC by 0.5 points and project about 49 points. Oakland is coming off their high scoring victory over Buffalo but that sets them up in a negative situation, which is 54-24-4 and plays against Oakland in this game. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 287-199-2. KC is just 1-7 ats over their last nine home games as a favorite. They’ve also gone under the total in 7 of those 8 games as well. A lot of those games they were large favorites but the last three times they have been home favorites of four or less points they are 3-0 ats, looking back over their last 10 games. Oakland is also 8-0 ats over the last two years as a road underdog. Derek Carr went under in four of his first five games as a road underdog. Since that time he has now gone over in 9 of his last 11 games as a road underdog. The Raiders have lost two games this year, including a 26-10 setback at home when KC came off their bye week and came in and dominated the Raiders. Oakland hasn’t lost since that game. They’ve scored 27 or more in all but two games this year. They’ve also allowed 20 or more points in all but two games as well. KC just defeated Atlanta on the road and will now face an Oakland team that has a very similar profile as the Falcons. Oakland is 23-7 ats the last 30 divisional games, including 7-0 ats during that same time span as an underdog of four or less points. Oakland is missing some key components in the middle of their defense. While the defense hasn’t been very good this year, the injuries are to some of their better players on defense this year. The values seems to lie to the underdog and the over but the situations lie to KC and the under. Andy Reid has dominated the Raiders since he came to KC, including earlier this year when the Raiders were playing well. Obviously, in previous years the Raiders weren’t that good. But, KC matches up well against these Raiders. The weather should be cold as forecasts are calling for temperatures in the teens by game time. While there isn’t expected to be any noticeable wind, the cold weather could do enough to slow down the offenses enough to keep this game under the total. KC hasn’t allowed more than 21 points at home since week one this year. The 21 point effort was allowed to NO a few weeks ago.
KANSAS CITY 24 OAKLAND 20