Spotlight on Chelsea – Season Points

Published by on December 2, 2016

After 13 rounds of the Premier League season it’s time for us to take a look at Chelsea – top of the table but not favourites for the Title according to Spread Betting firm, Spreadex.

Chelsea lead with 31 points, an average of 2.31 points per game. They’ve dropped 8 points drawing at Swansea and losing at Arsenal and Liverpool which all came during a 3-game flat spot back in September.

Chelsea’s form has been irresistible since the loss at Arsenal, winning their last 7 games in a row and conceding just 1 goal in the process.

Our view of their Run home with our expected results

MANCHESTER CITY VS CHELSEA – 1 point
CHELSEA VS WEST BROM – 3 points
SUNDERLAND VS CHELSEA – 3 points
CRYSTAL PALACE VS CHELSEA – 1 point
CHELSEA VS BOURNEMOUTH – 3 points
CHELSEA VS STOKE CITY – 3 points
TOTTENHAM VS CHELSEA – 1 point
LEICESTER CITY VS CHELSEA – 1 point
CHELSEA VS HULL CITY- 3 points
LIVERPOOL VS CHELSEA – 0 points
CHELSEA VS ARSENAL – 3 points
BURNLEY VS CHELSEA – 3 points
CHELSEA VS SWANSEA CITY – 3 points
WEST HAM UNITED VS CHELSEA – 3 points
CHELSEA VS WATFORD – 3 points
STOKE CITY VS CHELSEA – 3 points
CHELSEA VS CRYSTAL PALACE – 3 points
CHELSEA VS MANCHESTER CITY – 1 point
BOURNEMOUTH VS CHELSEA – 3 points
MANCHESTER UNITED VS CHELSEA – 1 point
CHELSEA VS SOUTHAMPTON – 1 point
EVERTON VS CHELSEA – 1 point
CHELSEA VS MIDDLESBROUGH – 3 points
WEST BROMWICH ALBION VS CHELSEA – 3 points
CHELSEA VS SUNDERLAND – 3 points

Our projection is for Chelsea to collect another 56 points in the run home across 25 games, which is 2.24 points per game. slightly lower than their current average of 2.31 points per game.

This would give them 87 points for the season.

We’ve compared the Top 2 points totals from the last 4 seasons against our projection and it appears to be within a reasonable range.

2015-16 – Leicester – 81 points, Arsenal – 71 points
2014-15 – Chelsea – 87 points, Man City – 79 points
2013-14 – Man City – 86 points, Liverpool – 84 points
2012-13 – Man United – 89 points, Man City – 78 points

Only last season’s very even competition saw both of the Top 2 finish with lower points than we are projecting.

What could change our thesis:

The team reverts to more average performances as they’ve conceded just 0.77 per game
Pick up additional serious injuries – only John Terry and Mikel are on the injured list right now
Kante and others to be required at the African Nations Cup in Jan and Feb although other clubs will also lose players so the full effect may be somewhat mitigated

In addition, they have no European Cups to focus on so should be able to keep the squad fresher for longer.

What we’re considering:

We’re considering a “BUY” of Chelsea season points at 81.5 for a £10 stake.

If you’re new to Spread Betting, this means that if we BUY Chelsea Points at 81.5 then we get a return of £10 for every point over 81.5 that Chelsea finish the season with.

So if our Projection is correct then we get:
(87 – 81.5) * £10
= 5.5 * £10
= £55 profit.

On the flipside we have to pay £10 for every point less than 81.5 they finish the season with.

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